ETF Allocation Mix Calculator

The calculator draws on Vanguard's long-run dataset covering over 120 years of stock and bond market returns from 1901 to 2024. All returns are adjusted for inflation to show real purchasing power — which matters more than nominal returns for long-term financial planning.

Many investors rebalance once a year, or when their actual allocation has drifted more than 5–10 percentage points from the target. Annual rebalancing keeps transaction costs low while maintaining your intended risk exposure. Some German brokers (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital) offer automated savings plans that can gradually correct drift without manual rebalancing.

In Germany, use UCITS-compliant ETFs domiciled in Ireland or Luxembourg — these are available on German exchanges and fully compatible with German brokerage accounts. For equities, popular choices include MSCI World and FTSE All-World ETFs from iShares, Vanguard, or Xtrackers. For bonds, look for UCITS-eligible global government or aggregate bond ETFs. Note: US-domiciled funds like VTI, VXUS, or BND are generally not available to investors resident in Germany.

No. Historical data provides useful context — particularly the relationship between allocation mix, volatility, and long-run returns — but past performance does not predict future results. Markets in any given decade can behave very differently from the 120-year average. This analysis is a starting point for thinking about risk tolerance, not a precise forecast.

Accumulating ETFs (Thesaurierer) reinvest dividends automatically; distributing ETFs pay them out. In Germany, accumulating ETFs trigger a Vorabpauschale — a small annual notional tax even without selling, based on the Basiszins set by the Bundesbank. Both types are taxed under the 26.375% Abgeltungsteuer flat rate. The overall tax difference between structures is small; keeping total expense ratios (TER) low tends to matter more.